Up-and-Comers: Junior Elite Gymnasts Eligible for the 2016 Olympics

When it comes to predictions on who will make the women's gymnastics team for the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio, the spotlight has been on current senior elite members Aly Raisman, Gabby Douglas, Simone Biles, and McKayla Skinner as likely candidates. All were a part of the national team that brought home the women's team title at 2015 World Championships. The predictions extend to less-likely possibilities, like Kyla Ross, Ashton Locklear, and Brenna Dowell, who are all consistent senior elite competitors, but haven't been putting up high enough scores all around to be serious threats.

If they make the 2016 Olympic team, Raisman will be 22, Douglas will be 20, and Simone Biles and McKayla Skinner will both be 19 by the time the games come around.

In 2012, three members of 2012's "Fierce Five" were 16 (Jordyn Wieber, Gabby Douglas, and McKayla Maroney). Kyla Ross was only 15 at the time, but was still eligible to compete because she would turn 16 later that year. Only Aly Raisman was a seasoned senior elite competitor at 18-years-old.

Frequently left out of Olympic hopeful conversations are the 250 15-year-old junior-elite gymnasts who will be 16 and eligible to compete at the Games next year. It's hard to predict if any of them will be able to compete against the current favorites since we've never seen them in senior elite competition. However, Olympic women's gymnastics teams are notoriously young, so it would be no surprise to see a few 16-year-olds on the Rio roster.

Let's take a look at the two biggest junior elite threats that might have a shot at Rio:

1. Laurie Hernandez

Laurie Herandez after winning the all-around gold at 2015 Junior P&G Championships -US Gymnastics YouTube Channel

Laurie Hernandez is the reigning national junior-elite all-around champion. She is a consistent all-around competitor, earning the all-around gold at the City of Jesolo Trophy, US Classic, and P&G Championships in 2015. She was also a strong competitor in event finals in 2015, having earned gold in uneven bars (14.500) and floor (14.650) at the City of Jesolo Trophy, gold in vault (14.900) and uneven bars (15.000), and bronze on floor (14.350)  and beam (14.200) at the US Classic, and gold on uneven bars (two-day combined score: 30.100) , silver on floor (28.900) and bronze on beam (28.850) and vault (29.650) at the P&G Championships.

In a closed competition at the national team training camp that combined junior and senior elites, Hernandez placed second behind three-time world all-around champion, Simone Biles.

Laurie Herandez uneven bar routine on day two of the 2015 Junior P&G Championships -US Gymnastics YouTube Channel

2. Jazmyn Foberg

Jazmyn Foberg at the 2015 Junior P&G championships -Inside Gymnastics Magazine's Youtube Channel

Jazmyn Foberg is another strong and consistent competitor on the national junior elite team that could make the 2016 Olympic team. In 2015, Foberg earned the bronze in all-around competitor at the 2015 City of Jesolo Trophy and US Classic and silver at the P&G Championships. Foberg is strong across the board in individual event competition earning gold on vault at the City of Jesolo Trophy, gold on beam (14.650), silver on vault (14.800), and bronze on the uneven bars (14.100), and silver medals on beam (two-day combined score - 29.050), vault (30.200), and uneven bars (29.450) at the P&G Championships.

Foberg on vault day two of the 2015 junior P&G Championships - US Gymnastics YouTube Channel

Honorable Mentions: Ragan Smith, Norah Flatley, and Christina Desiderio

2015 World Gymnastics Championships

Simone Biles became the first woman to ever win three consecutive gold medals in the all-around at the World Gymnastics Championships yesterday. After a shaky start, with a score of 60.388, Biles claimed the gold above US teammate and reining Olympic champion, Gabby Douglas, by 1.083 points.

breaking history is kind of cool ❤️ such an exciting night | couldn't have done it w/o all the love & support xx pic.twitter.com/1ccYgsytPq

— Simone Biles (@Simone_Biles) October 29, 2015

There is no doubt that Biles will make the Olympic team in 2016 as long as she continues to perform at this level and avoids injury. Biles is the current favorite to win gold in the all-around competition in the 2016 Olympic Games.

Gabby Douglas became the first reining Olympic all around champion to medal in world competition since 1981, taking home the silver with a score of 59.316.

Douglas has shared plans to upgrade her routines by the time the Olympics come around, giving her a higher difficulty start value which could help her surpass Biles in all-around competition if Biles doesn't upgrade.

Due to the controversial two-per-country rule, Olympic gold-medalist Aly Raisman was unable to compete in the all-around competition, despite qualifying fifth overall. However, Raisman was able to put up high scores for the women's team in the team finals.

If Raisman continues to improve, she is very likely to make the Olympic team. With the two-per-country rule still in place, she isn't expected to qualify in the Olympic all-around over Biles or Douglas. However, she shocked the world in 2012 after qualifying for all-around competition over favorite Jordyn Wieber, so don't count her out just yet.

The women's team once again won the gold in team competition with a score of 181.388.

🇺🇸🎉 https://t.co/gO1sYtbyse #WorldChamps #GoTeamUSA pic.twitter.com/eXrnQF0j1R

— U.S. Olympic Team (@TeamUSA) October 28, 2015

While teammates Maggie Nichols and Madison Kocian are generally consistent competitors and were a large part in bringing home the team gold, it is unclear if they will make the Olympic team with Raisman, Douglas, and Biles putting up such high scores and some great junior elite talent coming up.

Biles, Douglas, and Nichols will be competing in event finals October 31-November 1.

The Unbeatable Simone Biles

There's only one spot on the 2016 Olympic team that seems to be all but guaranteed. As soon as the 2012 Olympics ended, Simone Biles entered the scene, dominating senior elite gymnastics ever since. Now at 18, Simone has three national all-around golds and two world all-around golds. There seems to be no question to whether or not she will be making her way to Rio in 2016.

Mary Lou Retton, 1984 Olympic all-around gold medalist, claims Biles to be "unbeatable."

“She may be the most talented gymnast I’ve ever seen in my life, honestly,” Retton said. “And I don’t think she’s tapped into what she can really do. I think she’s unbeatable.”

Biles power and small frame contribute to her success. Below is a video from the 2015 AT&T American Cup where Biles put up an incredible 16.000 on floor. Not only is Biles considered to be a shoe in for the Olympic team, but most people consider her to be the front runner for the all-around gold.

 

If that video isn't enough to convince you the Biles may be the 2016 Olympic All-Around champion, take a look at some of her competitive history:

International:

• 2015 Jesolo Trophy, Jesolo, Italy - 1st-Team, AA, VT, BB, FX
• 2015 AT&T American Cup, Arlington, Texas - 1st-AA
• 2014 World Championships, Nanning, China - 1st-Team, AA, BB, FX; 2nd-VT
• 2013 World Championships, Antwerp, Belgium - 1st-AA, FX; 2nd-VT; 3rd-BB; 4th-UB
• 2013 American Cup, Worcester, Mass. - 2nd-AA; 1st-VT; 1st-UB; 7th-BB;4th-FX
• 2013 USA, Germany, Romania Tri-Meet, Chemnitz, Germany - 1st-Team; 2nd-AA(T)
• 2013 City of Jesolo Trophy, Jesolo, Italy - 1st-Team, AA, VT, BB, FX

National:

• 2015 P&G Championships (US Nationals), Indianapolis, IN. - 1st-AA, VT, BB; 2nd-FX; 5th-UB
• 2015 Secret US Classic, Hoffman Estates, Ill. - 1st- AA, VT, FX, BB: 4th- UB
• 2014 P&G Championships (US Nationals), Pittsburgh, Pa. - 1st-AA, VT, FX; 2nd-BB(T); 4th-UB
• 2014 Secret US Classic, Chicago, Ill. - 1st-AA, VT, BB(T), FX; 4th-UB
• 2013 P&G Championships (US Nationals), Hartford, Conn. - 1st-AA; 2nd-VT, UB, BB, FX
• 2013 Secret US Classic, Chicago, Ill. - 7th-BB; 8th-FX(T)
• 2012 Visa Championships (US Nationals), St. Louis, Mo. - 1st-VT; 3rd-AA; 6th-UB, BB(T), FX (Jr. Div.)
• 2012 Secret US Classic, Chicago, Ill. - 1st-AA, VT; 2nd-FX(T); 6th-BB (Jr. Div.)
• 2012 American Classic, Huntsville, Texas - 1st-AA, VT; 2ND-FX(T); 3rd-BB; 4th-UB (Jr. 2)
• 2011 Visa Championships (US Nationals), Saint Paul, Minn. - 7th-VT(T) (Jr. Div.)
• 2011 CoverGirl Classic, Chicago, Ill. - 5th-VT(T), FX (Jr. Div.)
• 2011 American Classic, Huntsville, Texas - 1st-VT, BB; 3rd-AA; 4th-FX; 8th-UB (Jr. 1)
• 2011 Gliders Elite Qualifier, Riverside, Calif. - 1st-VT, BB, AA; 3rd-FX; 5th-UB
• 2010 2010 Women's Junior Olympic Level 10 National Championships (Junior A), Dallas, Texas - 1st -FX, 3rd-VT(T)

The Comeback Kid(s) - Can the Fierce Five make a comeback at the 2016 Summer Games?

After leading the US to gold at the 2012 Olympic Games, many had high hopes that the Women's Artistic Gymnastics National Team - The "Fierce Five" - would return for the 2016 Summer Games in Rio. While many Olympians return to the games, gymnastics has a significantly lower return rate.

Elite female gymnasts often have short careers. Body changes due to puberty can significantly affect a gymnasts ability to perform well. Holding extra weight means you have to be stronger.  Growing an inch or two means you won't be able to flip as quickly as you used to. Younger girls are at an advantage and older girls can't keep up. In fact, no female US gymnast has gone to back-to-back games since Dominique Dawes and Amy Chow in 2000.

By the time the 2016 Olympic Games come around, the ages of the Fierce Five will range from 19-22, leaving them far past their prime. At the conclusion of the 2012 games, four of the five confirmed they intended to return in 2016. However, since 2000, six female US olympic gymnasts have tried and failed.

With Olympic qualifications less than a year away, it's time to check in on the Fierce Five.

Jordyn Wieber

Jordyn Wieber went into the 2012 games as the favorite to win all-around gold in London. However, due to a few minor mistakes, an ankle injury, and the two-per-country rule, she failed to qualify for the all-around finals. Still, her efforts during the team competition helped earn another gold medal for the US.

After the devastating heartbreak, many had hoped Wieber would return to the games in 2016 and bring home the all-around gold. Wieber remained quiet about whether or not she intended to return to the games. After taking a year off, she returned to the gym, leading many to believe she had her sights set on Rio.

However, after spending two years in college at UCLA the gymnast announced she was retiring from gymnastics, writing "Deciding to end that part of my life was one of the most difficult, emotion-filled decisions I have ever made."

Gabby Douglas

At the age of 16, Gabby Douglas became the first African-American woman to win gold in the women's all-around competition with her unique blend of power and poise. After a brief post-Olympic break, the 2012 Olympic all-around champion returned to the gym in May 2013 with plans to make it back to Rio.

Douglas returned to competition with the US team at the 2015 City of Jesolo Trophy in May. Douglas made a strong return, placing fourth in the all-around finals, scoring 58.900. Douglas continued her success finishing second in the all-around at the Secret US Classic with a score of 60.500 and fifth in the all-around at the P&G Championships with a score of 59.280.

Douglas appears to be a serious contender for a spot on the 2016 Olympic team.

Aly Raisman

Aly Raisman was the oldest member and team captain of the Fierce Five at the London Games. Raisman left the Games with the most medals; gold on team, gold on floor, and bronze on beam.

Raisman took a break from gymnastics and even made it to the finals during her run on Dancing With the Stars. Raisman returned to the gym in 2014 to begin training. Raisman returned to competition alongside Gabby Douglas at the 2015 City of Jesolo Trophy in May 2015, earning the bronze in the all-around finals with a score of 59.100. Raisman once again claimed the bronze in the all-around finals at the P&G Championships with a score of 59.900.

If Raisman continues to compete at this level, she is likely to make the 2016 Olympic team

McKayla Maroney

McKayla Maroney made the 2012 Olympic team based to her incredible power on vault. Maroney's near-perfect Amanar during the team finals remains one of the best vaults ever seen in elite competition. While she was expected to easily capture the gold medal during the vault finals, a botched landing left her with the silver. Maroney announced her intention to return for the 2016 Summer Games immediately following the conclusion of the London Games

Maroney returned to competition in July 2013 at the US Secret Classic where she earned the gold on vault, and the bronze on floor. During the 2013 P&G Championships Maroney continued her success, claiming the gold medal on vault and floor. At the 2013 World Championships, Maroney recieved the gold on vault.

In March 2014, Maroney underwent surgery on her knee. Since the surgery, her future in gymnastics remains unclear.

Kyla Ross

The youngest member of the Fierce Five never took a break from gymnastics following the London Games. Ross was in the gym and back in competition by March 2013.

While Ross has been a clean and consistent competitor over the past two years, with Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas back in competition, Ross's scores are no longer making the cut.

Ross was notably left off the nominative roster for the 2015 World Championships after getting tenth place in the all-around finals at the P&G Championships in August. Ross withdrew from the 2015 World Championship team selection camp to focus on training.

Ross will have to upgrade her routines if she hopes to make the 2016 Olympic team.